There are five (5) threat levels which inform decisions about the level of security needed:

• Low – an attack is unlikely;
• Moderate – an attack is possible, but not likely;
• Substantial – an attack is a strong possibility;
• Severe – an attack is highly likely;
• Critical – an attack is expected imminently;

2008; the UK is at “Severe”, with the prospect that it will remain at this level for several generations. With only one higher security state at “Critica”, the security threat we face is not conventional.

It is now believed that businesses should consider such threats, specifically those raised by national risk assessments, carried-out by Government, identifying disruptive challenges that the UK could experience over a five year period. The resulting information is then used by Government in developing its own contingency plans and emergency response capabilities. This risk assessment should therefore be considered, against the likelihood and impact, when developing and reviewing business continuity plans, and when considering the resilience of supplier organisations in your supply chain:

• Large-scale temporary absence of staff;
• Permanent or long-term loss of staff;
• Denial of site or geographical area and displaced persons;
• Loss of mains electricity;
• Disruption to transport;
• Loss of mains water and sewerage;
• Gas;
• Loss of electronic communications;

Associated with the national risk assessment is the threat from international terrorism. This threat is supported by constant alert warnings, specifically in the City of London, as the security services respond to potential attacks from groups such as Al Qaeda. This threat is supported by MI5, warning that more than 1,600 identified individuals are actively engaged in plotting terrorist attacks, and that behind this there are some 200 known networks involved in at least 30 terrorist plots.

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